They Don't Trust the Process. They're Showing Up Anyway.
New research on women's electoral sentiment from 805 women reveals a paradox at the heart of Nigeria's 2027 elections.
Let me start with a number.
41%
That is the percentage of Nigerian women in our survey of 805 women across all six geopolitical zones who believe their vote can influence the outcome of an election. Forty-one per cent!
Which means the majority of the women we spoke to, women who are registered to vote, women who lived through 2023, women watching the 2027 election cycle begin to take shape - do not believe their participation changes anything.
And yet, 60% of them still say they intend to show up.
This is why we built the To Vote or Not to Vote Survey.
Today, ElectHER is publishing the inaugural edition of the To Vote or Not to Vote: Women’s Electoral Sentiment Survey- the first research series in Nigeria dedicated specifically to tracking what women think, feel, and intend to do ahead of a general election.
What the Data Says
60% intend to vote in 2027, against 77% in general-population surveys. That 17-point gap disappears when data is not disaggregated by gender.
81% feel no candidate is addressing the issues that matter to them. The female vote is not locked; it is available to whoever earns it.
96% are concerned about election-day security.
72% report little or no trust in the process, yet many still plan to participate. Civic duty, not institutional confidence, is driving female turnout.
Why This Matters, and Why Now
Nigeria is seven months away from a presidential election cycle. The institutions, the candidates, the security apparatus, and civil society all have work to do, and this data names what that work should be.
We have already shared the report with INEC leadership and directors of key electoral units. We are circulating it to security operatives responsible for election-day planning. We want the findings to reach the people who can act on them before there is no time left to do so.
Key findings are also live on our dedicated data dashboard, where you can explore the data interactively. This resource will be updated as the series progresses:
Wave 2 is in planning- targeting 10,000 women, with broader geographic reach, to be published before year-end. As 2027 draws closer, we intend to ensure women's electoral participation is not an afterthought in the national conversation.
We built this survey because the data shaping electoral planning in Nigeria rarely centres women specifically. 805 women gave us their time and their honesty to change that. The least we can do is make sure their answers land where they matter.
If this is useful, share it. If you are in a position to act on it, please do.
Ibijoke F
Chief Executive Officer, ElectHER
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